The odds of a strong hurricane impacting Florida have decreased, but a dangerous event can yet be completely ruled out. The strong consensus of the various computer forecasts is that the Caribbean tropical system – soon to be Tropical Storm Sara – will ...

There is a strong consensus among the various computer forecast models that the tropical disturbance near Jamaica will organize into a tropical depression before the end of the week and pretty quickly develop into Tropical Storm Sara.

Still, if the system maintains a core and decent structure during its time over land, there is plenty of warm water in the southern Gulf for it to reorganize and strengthen before it reaches Florida, if it heads that way. Seawater in the northern half of the Gulf is much cooler.

Consensus of the computer forecast models show that the robust Tropical Disturbance south of the Dominican Republic will develop and eventually organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are urging residents of the eastern Gulf Coast, particularly Floridians, to monitor the forecast closely because there could be an opening for the storm to reach the US next week.